SQ B747-400 withdrawal thread

[zvezda]

With SPE back with the new colours, will there be any new time frame for withdrawals? Three months seems a short time to pull 10 aircraft out. I may be flying to FRA in late Nov/early Dec and I'm still hoping to catch the 744 on SQ26, although that might be a rather small hope.

One can hope. I would be hoping to not be on a JumboJet, preferring to be on either a WhaleJet or a 777-300ER.

[sumitsan]

With SQ219 being downgaguged after Oct 4, and SQ227 upgauged on Sep 29, I would expect at least 3 Jumbos (maybe 4) to leave the fleet around that time period. After that, it's anybody's guess on when the withdrawal date is (Possibility that the rest of the 6 or 7 may leave at the same time by March 2010).

[zvezda]

With SQ219 being downgaguged after Oct 4, and SQ227 upgauged on Sep 29, I would expect at least 3 Jumbos (maybe 4) to leave the fleet around that time period.

SQ219 and SQ227 each need one available aircraft. So, two (or perhaps three) fewer JumboJets will be needed when they get different aircraft.

[Trawler]

One can hope. I would be hoping to not be on a JumboJet, preferring to be on either a WhaleJet or a 777-300ER.

I am flying to FRA in late Dec then onward to JFK early Jan and am hoping that the 744 gets swapped out as I'm flying in Y.

Hope the murmurs of JFK being dropped aren't true.

[zvezda]

I am flying to FRA in late Dec then onward to JFK early Jan and am hoping that the 744 gets swapped out as I'm flying in Y.

Hope the murmurs of JFK being dropped aren't true.

If SQ do drop the JFK tag, then I would expect re-adoption of the code-sharing agreement with LH for FRA-JFK.

[SMK77]

If SQ do drop the JFK tag, then I would expect re-adoption of the code-sharing agreement with LH for FRA-JFK.

Drop FRA-JFK and replace 747 with 77W - maybe they can alternate the second daily flight for ZRH and FRA and free one 77W that way...

[zvezda]

Drop FRA-JFK and replace 747 with 77W - maybe they can alternate the second daily flight for ZRH and FRA and free one 77W that way...

Unless there is a further major collapse of the economy, I don't see SQ serving either FRA or ZRH less than twice daily.

[SMK77]

Unless there is a further major collapse of the economy, I don't see SQ serving either FRA or ZRH less than twice daily.

The plan was that Swiss is operating one flight - but they have scrapped that...

[wsssaero]

With only 9V-SKJ left to be delivered this year for the MEL route and no more 77Ws, I suppose the Oct 09 pullout for the 744s is off?

[Danny Bhoy]

I know that Cabin Crew aren't the best sources for detailed info on future fleet structure, but the J cabin Chief Steward on the ICN-SFO leg of my present trip said that the 744s were expected to be gone in 2011 and this was after I surmised that they ought to be all gone by early 2010.

[zvezda]

With only 9V-SKJ left to be delivered this year for the MEL route and no more 77Ws, I suppose the Oct 09 pullout for the 744s is off?

It's difficult to see how SQ can retire the remaining JumboJets by October or by March. With the delivery of 9V-SKJ in September, all the JumboJets will be gone from SYD/MEL, leaving just SIN-NRT-LAX and SIN-FRA-JFK. 9V-SKK is due in January. 9V-SKL had been due in April, but no sign of a convoy yet and she's way overdue to enter FAL, so I think we can safely say there is zero chance of 9V-SKL being delivered this fiscal year.

The expectation was that the reconfigured 777-300s would free up some 777-300ERs to replace the remaining JumboJets. It looks like that's not happening. There should be some more A330-300s delivered in Q1 2010, so perhaps they will free up some reconfigured 777-300s to free up some 777-300ERs.

The FRA-JFK tag could be dropped, reducing the need for one aircraft. The HKG and NRT WhaleJet flights could be downgauged (to what?). Utilization now is low, so SIN-FRA could be started with the January delivery of 9V-SKK. To upgauge SIN-NRT-LAX would probably require pulling the WhaleJets from the existing NRT and HKG flights and adding one more. The problem is that loads and yields are so low now that SQ might not be able to get 5% more revenue (due to the better seats and IFE) to cover the WhaleJet's 5% higher trip costs on that route. Add in the acquisition/leasing costs and that's an economic loser. The route desperately needs the 777-300ER.

So, my best guess is: The JFK tag gets dropped, SIN-FRA gets upgauged to the WhaleJet in January, and SIN-NRT-LAX gets downgauged to the 777-300ER which will be freed up by 777-300s freed up by new deliveries of A330-300s (or the 777-300ERs get freed up directly by A330-300s) during Q1 2010.

I don't see any other plausible way to retire the remaining JumboJets by the end of March.

[sumitsan]

So, my best guess is: The JFK tag gets dropped, SIN-FRA gets upgauged to the WhaleJet in January, and SIN-NRT-LAX gets downgauged to the 777-300ER which will be freed up by 777-300s freed up by new deliveries of A330-300s (or the 777-300ERs get freed up directly by A330-300s) during Q1 2010.

I don't see any other plausible way to retire the remaining JumboJets by the end of March.

Between Oct 2009 and March 2010, SQ will probably have 7-8 JumboJets. I guess each of the routes (SQ11/12 & SQ25/26) require 3 a/c, so 6 are needed, with maybe 1 or 2 spares. So depending on how many A333s are being delivered between now and March 2010, and the future of the FRA-JFK sector, I would go with Zvezda's guess on the way the Jumbos could be retired.

[zvezda]

Between Oct 2009 and March 2010, SQ will probably have 7-8 JumboJets. I guess each of the routes (SQ11/12 & SQ25/26) require 3 a/c, so 6 are needed, with maybe 1 or 2 spares. So depending on how many A333s are being delivered between now and March 2010, and the future of the FRA-JFK sector, I would go with Zvezda's guess on the way the Jumbos could be retired.

No need to guess how many aircraft are needed to fly SIN-FRA-JFK and SIN-NRT-LAX. Here is the rotation (easily derived from the timetable):
Day 1: Depart SIN at 23:50
Day 2: Arrive FRA at 06:30, depart at 08:30, arrive JFK at 10:45, depart JFK at 21:15.
Day 3: Arrive FRA at 11:15, depart at 12:35
Day 4: Arrive SIN at 06:35, depart at 09:40, arrive NRT at 17:35, depart at 18:45, arrive LAX at 13:00, depart LAX at 14:45.
Day 5: Arrive NRT at 18:10, depart NRT at 19:10
Day 6: Arrive SIN at 01:15.

So, five available aircraft are required. There is a 22 hour interval at SIN for MX and another 10 hour interval at JFK.

I don't see any reason why SQ would want to keep more than six JumboJets on hand to operate these two routes.

[Bitterroot]

Another One Done Gone.......

9V-SPG ferried SIN to Bournemouth 6 August -- on delivery to Eagle Aviation.

[wsssaero]

Bye bye Party Girl...Of my two outbound flights on the 744 I made from SIN, both were done on SPG.