MH370 KUL-PEK : Now confirmed lost in Southern Indian Ocean

[CarbonMan]

What exactly are you expecting him to say ?. I know where the plane is but you gotta drop these ridiculous charges before I tell you ?. They'll find some way of blaming him for it I am sure...

That he sends his heartfelt wishes to pax family and also to his in-laws family, right from the start? If he announces it before it leaked, there would never be any insinuation that he was trying to hide something. He needs to stay on the high ground by being as transparent as possible. But that's politics, mostly about perception, manufactured or otherwise.

[boing]

Interesting POV: https://plus.google.com/app/basic/st...rfyiz3vdhbop04

MH370 A different point of view. Pulau Langkawi 13,000 runway.

A lot of speculation about MH370. Terrorism, hijack, meteors. I cannot believe the analysis on CNN - almost disturbing. I tend to look for a more simple explanation of this event.

Loaded 777 departs midnight from Kuala to Beijing. Hot night. Heavy aircraft. About an hour out across the gulf towards Vietnam the plane goes dark meaning the transponder goes off and secondary radar tracking goes off.

Two days later we hear of reports that Malaysian military radar (which is a primary radar meaning the plane is being tracked by reflection rather than by transponder interrogation response) has tracked the plane on a southwesterly course back across the Malay Peninsula into the straits of Malacca.

When I heard this I immediately brought up Google Earth and I searched for airports in proximity to the track towards southwest.

The left turn is the key here. This was a very experienced senior Captain with 18,000 hours. Maybe some of the younger pilots interviewed on CNN didn't pick up on this left turn. We old pilots were always drilled to always know the closest airport of safe harbor while in cruise. Airports behind us, airports abeam us and airports ahead of us. Always in our head. Always. Because if something happens you don't want to be thinking what are you going to do - you already know what you are going to do. Instinctively when I saw that left turn with a direct heading I knew he was heading for an airport. Actually he was taking a direct route to Palau Langkawi a 13,000 foot strip with an approach over water at night with no obstacles. He did not turn back to Kuala Lampur because he knew he had 8,000 foot ridges to cross. He knew the terrain was friendlier towards Langkawi and also a shorter distance.

Take a look on Google Earth at this airport. This pilot did all the right things. He was confronted by some major event onboard that made him make that immediate turn back to the closest safe airport.
For me the loss of transponders and communications makes perfect sense if a fire. There was most likely a fire or electrical fire. In the case of fire the first response if to pull all the main busses and restore circuits one by one until you have isolated the bad one.


If they pulled the busses the plane indeed would go silent. It was probably a serious event and they simply were occupied with controlling the plane and trying to fight the fire. Aviate, Navigate and lastly communicate. There are two types of fires. Electrical might not be as fast and furious and there might or might not be incapacitating smoke. However there is the possibility given the timeline that perhaps there was an overheat on one of the front landing gear tires and it blew on takeoff and started slowly burning. Yes this happens with underinflated tires. Remember heavy plane, hot night, sea level, long run takeoff. There was a well known accident in Nigeria of a DC8 that had a landing gear fire on takeoff. A tire fire once going would produce horrific incapacitating smoke. Yes, pilots have access to oxygen masks but this is a no no with fire. Most have access to a smoke hood with a filter but this will only last for a few minutes depending on the smoke level. (I used to carry one of my own in a flight bag and I still carry one in my briefcase today when I fly).

What I think happened is that they were overcome by smoke and the plane just continued on the heading probably on George (autopilot) until either fuel exhaustion or fire destroyed the control surfaces and it crashed. I said four days ago you will find it along that route - looking elsewhere was pointless.

This pilot, as I say, was a hero struggling with an impossible situation trying to get that plane to Langkawi. No doubt in my mind. That's the reason for the turn and direct route. A hijack would not have made that deliberate left turn with a direct heading for Langkawi. It would probably have weaved around a bit until the hijackers decided on where they were taking it.

Surprisingly none of the reporters , officials, other pilots interviewed have looked at this from the pilot's viewpoint. If something went wrong where would he go? Thanks to Google earth I spotted Langkawi in about 30 seconds, zoomed in and saw how long the runway was and I just instinctively knew this pilot knew this airport. He had probably flown there many times. I guess we will eventually find out when you help me spread this theory on the net and some reporters finally take a look on Google earth and put 2 and 2 together. Also a look at the age and number of cycles on those nose tires might give us a good clue too.

Fire in an aircraft demands one thing - you get the machine on the ground as soon as possible. There are two well remembered experiences in my memory. The AirCanada DC9 which landed I believe in Columbus Ohio in the eighties. That pilot delayed descent and bypassed several airports. He didn't instinctively know the closest airports. He got it on the ground eventually but lost 30 odd souls. In the 1998 crash of Swissair DC-10 off Nova Scotia was another example of heroic pilots. They were 15 minutes out of Halifax but the fire simply overcame them and they had to ditch in the ocean. Just ran out of time. That fire incidentally started when the aircraft was about an hour out of Kennedy. Guess what the transponders and communications were shut off as they pulled the busses.


Get on Google Earth and type in Pulau Langkawi and then look at it in relation to the radar track heading. 2+2=4 That for me is the simple explanation why it turned and headed in that direction.

Smart pilot. Just didn't have the time.

I agree that one of the reasons the aircraft the could have turned back could be due to technical reasons. All commercial aircrafts fly by preset waypoints which are keyed into the FMC (Flight Management Computer), which the aircraft would follow all the way to its destination, along with minor deviations along the way due to wx and traffic.

This routing is by and large determined by the airline's flight planning department and would be the primary flight plan or Route A programmed in the FMC.

However, there is also a provision to input an alternative flight plan in the FMC for emergencies and diversions which the flight crew is at total liberty to input in the FMC.( Could be wrong here. Some airlines could dictate this routing as well. But most airlines leave it to the discretion of the flight crew.)
One lead the investigators could look into is asking flight crews who have flown with either pilots before, MH 370s pilots preferred diversionary airport for emergency landing and the respective routing input in the FMC.

If the response is Langkawi along with the waypoints the aircraft flew, then we are looking at an air turn back gone bad. Something happened along the way to Langkawi that incapacitated both pilots, that it either went down along the way or flew blind to nowhere till fuel exhaustion.

However, I disagree with the tyre implosion theory. B777, along with most glass cockpit aircrafts, have tyre pressure indicating systems for the flight crew to see the actual tyre pressure from the cockpit. This would actually trigger an EICAS message if the pressure gets too low. So, no chance of an underinflated tyre here. Moreover, if a bad tire did implode in the nosewheel well, no chance of fire as in the Saudia incident as that occurred in the main landing wheel well. which is right below the center fuel tank. Hydraulic leak, possible. But fire, No.

[Nick C]

Interesting POV: https://plus.google.com/app/basic/st...rfyiz3vdhbop04

http://www.slate.com/blogs/future_te..._langkawi.html

No mayday call. No 7700. All we got was ACARS switching off and a "good night".

[boing]

What exactly are you expecting him to say ?. I know where the plane is but you gotta drop these ridiculous charges before I tell you ?. They'll find some way of blaming him for it I am sure...

I haven't seen any comments from Singapore about anything their radar(s) may have picked up. They can see up past KL, or is that not supposed to be common knowledge, especially to the Malaysian public ?. I was travelling next to an SQ 777 captain earlier this week and was he very defensive when I asked him what he thought of MH370 and particularly the rumours it 'shadowed' SQ68 for a while!!

Sadly I don't think they will ever find it so we'll never know what really happened. That's worrying, as flying as often as I do - especially on 777's - I would really like to know what went on and those poor families will never have any closure.

It's a shame the UK Government, in yet another moment of genius, retired The Mighty Hunter or we may have been able to assist in some way with the vast ocean searches.

I have a feeling all countries involved are still hiding crucial information regarding MH370s primary radar returns for the fear of exposing their air defence capabilities, or lack thereof, which Malaysia demonstrated. For the sake of avoiding diplomatic rows and start an arms race, just say nothing and act blur.

I do not believe that in this day and age, a 200+ ton B777 could just go stealth and fly multiple countries with relative ease. If that's the case, USAF have just found their answer to the billion dollar B2's replacement. Far cheaper and greater payload, with stealth to boot.

And I do not subscribe to the theory that the pilots could have turned rogue. One is a father of three and a grandfather, and another, planning to get married to his fiancee soon. They had so much to live and I don't think anyone would go kamikaze and lose all this just due to political beliefs.

The media seems to be constantly harping on the fact that the Captain had a flight simulator at home. The fact is, Microsoft flight simulator could be bought by anyone at any IT shop. Just buy some off the shelf accessories to pimp it up and you have your very own flight simulator in the comfort of your home. There are various forums and Youtube videos showing how you can create this. What's so sinister about this ? Going by this logic, people who play counterstrike and other FPS games are potential terrorists who could possibly grab a gun and cause a massacre.

And another thing, I wonder if the investigators and media would place so much emphasis on the investigation lead of deliberate pilot action if this was a Western carrier and the pilots were of different religious beliefs ?

Disclaimer: Just my 2 cents. These are my unqualified opinions and nothing more.

[Kyo]

So apparently Thailand's radar might have picked up the signature but didn't bother saying anything for 9 days as it wasn't a threat to Thailand... awesome... TIT!

[MAN Flyer]

Is your "mighty hunter" referring to the Nimrod?

I was indeed. It was a phenomenal maritime surveillance platform.

That he sends his heartfelt wishes to pax family and also to his in-laws family, right from the start? If he announces it before it leaked, there would never be any insinuation that he was trying to hide something.

Who exactly is insinuating that he knows what happened to this missing 300 ton aircraft with 239 people on board ?. If certain people in Malaysia are making out that because he didn't say anything immediately that he is somehow something to do with it then they need to wrap a damp towel around their head and lie in a dark room for a few hours. I notice Motor Mouth himself has been very quiet as well. I would imagine he has finally been told to STFU as the assistance of the country he regularly blames for all the world's ills is very much needed at the moment.

And another thing, I wonder if the investigators and media would place so much emphasis on the investigation lead of deliberate pilot action if this was a Western carrier and the pilots were of different religious beliefs ?

After confirmation that ACARS and the Transponder had deliberately been turned off ?. Absolutely. And the authorities would have raided their homes a damn sight earlier than a week later as well.

So apparently Thailand's radar might have picked up the signature but didn't bother saying anything for 9 days as it wasn't a threat to Thailand... awesome... TIT!

Yes. Nobody asked them, apparently......

I do agree with boing on this though in that some countries are probably still reluctant to divulge everything they know. I saw a news crew yesterday that were supposed to be going out with a Japanese surveillance aircraft but it never happened as Indonesia hadn't granted permission.

[Nick C]

The media seems to be constantly harping on the fact that the Captain had a flight simulator at home. The fact is, Microsoft flight simulator could be bought by anyone at any IT shop. Just buy some off the shelf accessories to pimp it up and you have your very own flight simulator in the comfort of your home. There are various forums and Youtube videos showing how you can create this. What's so sinister about this ? Going by this logic, people who play counterstrike and other FPS games are potential terrorists who could possibly grab a gun and cause a massacre.

No doubt he was an flying enthusiast but given his position as a training captain and position within MAS, access to the airline's sole 777 simulator (which are so much more realistic) would be easy compared to most routes other enthusiasts take.

[KC*]

The media seems to be constantly harping on the fact that the Captain had a flight simulator at home. The fact is, Microsoft flight simulator could be bought by anyone at any IT shop. Just buy some off the shelf accessories to pimp it up and you have your very own flight simulator in the comfort of your home. There are various forums and Youtube videos showing how you can create this. What's so sinister about this ? Going by this logic, people who play counterstrike and other FPS games are potential terrorists who could possibly grab a gun and cause a massacre.

In the absence of any clear indication that it is irrelevant, it will be pretty negligent of the authorities not to check thoroughly into this possible lead. It may turn out to be a dead-end but one cannot assume so until checked.

As for the media, their job is to sell news.

[CarbonMan]

Let's hope the Australians got it right. http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-26659583

[boing]

After confirmation that ACARS and the Transponder had deliberately been turned off ?. Absolutely. And the authorities would have raided their homes a damn sight earlier than a week later as well.

What if ACARS and transponder went off uncommanded rather than by an intentional human input ? The authorities only came to this conclusion as the ACARS was switched off before the last radio transmission by the crew.

I believe one of the reasons Chris Goodfellow theorized the nosewheel failure is it's proximity to the B777's Main Equipment Centre(MEC). This is where all the aircraft's computers are stored. The MEC is sandwiched in between the nosewheel well and forward cargo.

Has anyone ever considered the possibility of a cargo fire in the forward cargo compartment ? The MEC and the forward cargo compartment is separated by just a thin composite board. If the fire breached into the MEC, there is a possibility it could have damaged the comms equipments giving rise to the notion that they were turned off. It could also have damaged flight computers rendering flight control impossible leading to a possible crash some time after the turn back west. The associated smoke could have also incapacitated the crew.

I would be interested to know what was on the cargo manifest of that flight. There have been hull losses in recent times due to fire in the cargo hold.

[cscs1956]

What if ACARS and transponder went off uncommanded rather than by an intentional human input ? The authorities only came to this conclusion as the ACARS was switched off before the last radio transmission by the crew.

I believe one of the reasons Chris Goodfellow theorized the nosewheel failure is it's proximity to the B777's Main Equipment Centre(MEC). This is where all the aircraft's computers are stored. The MEC is sandwiched in between the nosewheel well and forward cargo.

Has anyone ever considered the possibility of a cargo fire in the forward cargo compartment ? The MEC and the forward cargo compartment is separated by just a thin composite board. If the fire breached into the MEC, there is a possibility it could have damaged the comms equipments giving rise to the notion that they were turned off. It could also have damaged flight computers rendering flight control impossible leading to a possible crash some time after the turn back west. The associated smoke could have also incapacitated the crew.

I would be interested to know what was on the cargo manifest of that flight. There have been hull losses in recent times due to fire in the cargo hold.

This fire last too long from the last communication point to last known location by military radar right ?

[MAN Flyer]

Looks like Inmarsat have managed to track the aircraft's flight in some way using more data and PM Najib just confirmed that the UK Air Accident Investigation Board (AAIB) have passed this information on and they now consider MH370 went down somewhere over the southern indian ocean, which also ties in with the debris they seem to be seeing down there.

How on earth a flight that was scheduled to fly from KUL to PEK ends up on the way to the south pole God only knows, but we really need to find out, no matter how long it takes.

In the meantime thoughts go out to the families of those lost on the flight, who must be going through a horrendous time just now.

[Durian]

RIP MH370

[GreekLunatic]

it seems strange that a flight going to china nearly ended up at perth. RIP to all who perished on MH370

[cscs1956]

it seems strange that a flight going to china nearly ended up at perth. RIP to all who perished on MH370

Someone trying to fly the plane to Australia instead of Beijing.