2009 SQ Aircraft deliveries

[SQKevin]

Picture of 9V-SKJ in XFW.

http://www.aviation-friends-hamburg-...ad.php?tid=533

It appears that its been out on CTL for sometime. Would it suggest an earlier delivery even though it will not change the start of A380 SIN-MEL services? This would mean 3 spares for most of September permitting more of the earlier birds to go on MX. Zvezda, your thoughts.

[zvezda]

Would it suggest an earlier delivery even though it will not change the start of A380 SIN-MEL services? This would mean 3 spares for most of September permitting more of the earlier birds to go on MX. Zvezda, your thoughts.

I don't see how Airbus can install the cabin, then complete the acceptance and delivery process before mid-September. I expect to see delivery late in September. SQ's WhaleJet utilization is low enough to have ample time for MX. If they need to pull one for a week, they can do it.

[SQKevin]

I don't see how Airbus can install the cabin, then complete the acceptance and delivery process before mid-September. I expect to see delivery late in September. SQ's WhaleJet utilization is low enough to have ample time for MX. If they need to pull one for a week, they can do it.

Would it appear that Airbus at XFW is having difficulties coping with outfitting and testing? At Toulouse, on the other hand, assembly appears to be accelerating. 9V-SKK took only 118 days to assemble, the fastest on record, to date. If assembly continues at this rate, would Airbus be able to meet its delivery target for 2009 and beyond?

[zvezda]

Would it appear that Airbus at XFW is having difficulties coping with outfitting and testing?

What would give you that idea? The one month delay fitting 9V-SKG's cabin?

At Toulouse, on the other hand, assembly appears to be accelerating. 9V-SKK took only 118 days to assemble, the fastest on record, to date. If assembly continues at this rate, would Airbus be able to meet its delivery target for 2009 and beyond?

The delivery target for 2009 has been revised downward, in several steps, from 45 to 14, more due to market conditions than to production problems. I don't see any reason why Airbus wouldn't be able to deliver 14 WhaleJets in 2009.

[SQKevin]

The delay with 9V-SKG is probably an isolated case. My conclusion was based on the fact that whalejet production in Toulouse appears to be getting faster in comparison with the pace of outfitting in XFW.
Anyway, zvezda, I am curious why you have revised your prediction for the delivery of 9V-SKJ from early September to late September.

[Nick C]

Dumbo #10 is now out in the open at XFW.

[zvezda]

The delay with 9V-SKG is probably an isolated case.

Agreed.

My conclusion was based on the fact that whalejet production in Toulouse appears to be getting faster in comparison with the pace of outfitting in XFW.

Let's not confuse latency with throughput. How long it takes to complete a particular step and how many units can be produced in a given period are not the same.

Anyway, zvezda, I am curious why you have revised your prediction for the delivery of 9V-SKJ from early September to late September.

Word from XFW.

[zvezda]

9V-SKJ passed her cabin acceptance flight test yesterday and is now at TLS being prepped for her acceptance flight test and delivery.

[SQKevin]

9V-SKJ passed her cabin acceptance flight test yesterday and is now at TLS being prepped for her acceptance flight test and delivery.

That's great news!

Quoting the A380 production Form site, 9V-SKK is scheduled for its 1st & ferry flight on 7 September with delivery scheduled for December 2009.

If SQ confirms that it is deferring its next whalejets to Q3 2009, we will not see any SQ whalejets in Toulouse or XFW for a while.

[TerryK]

....If SQ confirms that it is deferring its next whalejets to Q3 2009, we will not see any SQ whalejets in Toulouse or XFW for a while.

Is SKK the last one of the current batch? I wonder how SQ can get enough aircraft to retire all 744 by Q1?

[SQKevin]

Is SKK the last one of the current batch? I wonder how SQ can get enough aircraft to retire all 744 by Q1?

From my knowledge, the first 10 aircraft come from the first order with the next 9 from the second order. So 9V-SKK is the last of the first (current) batch. Its the second batch that might be deferred. As to the question of whether there will be enough aircraft to retire the 744 by Q1, I have no idea. Zvezda, will probably have the answer.

[SQKevin]

From my knowledge, the first 10 aircraft come from the first order with the next 9 from the second order. So 9V-SKK is the last of the first (current) batch. Its the second batch that might be deferred. As to the question of whether there will be enough aircraft to retire the 744 by Q1, I have no idea. Zvezda, will probably have the answer.

Oops, my mistake! 9V-SKK is the 11th SQ A380. So, that makes it the first in the second order of 9 A380s.

[sumitsan]

There must be some 333 deliveries before the end of Q1. As zvezda mentioned before, these 333s will probably free up some 77Ws that can replace the remaining Jumbo Jets routes. Right now, most believe that the SQ11/12 and SQ25/26 will likely be replaced by 77Ws, although the FRA-JFK sector may/may not be dropped. If it gets dropped, then chances are the 388 will likely get this route (25/26).

[zvezda]

9V-SKJ is the last of SQ's first tranche of WhaleJets and the last aircraft that will be delivered to SQ in calendar year 2009.

SQ's fiscal year ends 31 March 2010. The first WhaleJet of the second tranche, 9V-SKK appears to be on-track for a January delivery. :-) She will be the first new aircraft delivered to SQ in the 2010 calendar year. SQ should also be getting two or three A330-300s in Q1 2010 i.e. the Q4 of the fiscal year. I believe the 19th and last A330-300 is planned for delivery about September or October 2010, if I recall correctly.

It is clear now that SQ have deferred delivery of 9V-SKL. It's not clear whether or not 9V-SKM through 9V-SKS have also been deferred. I don't expect there to ever be a public announcement of the deferral because there was never a public announcement of the previously planned delivery dates (9V-SKK was the last one with an announced delivery fiscal year even) and there would seem to be no benefit to either Airbus or SQ to announce a deferral.

I still expect all of SQ's passenger JumboJets to be retired by the end of fiscal year 2009 i.e. by 31 March 2010, as previously announced. That will require pressing reconfigured 777-300s into service on routes now operated by 777-300ERs. The two or three A330-300s to be delivered in Q1 2010 should facilitate that.

[maxmin]

Zvezda - do you think the 744s will fly up to the very last minute of FY 2009 ?

I've got this vested interest in my early March SQ11 award flight, to be frank!