Long Term Fleet Prospects

[flyguy]

believed now that SQ is having and going to have too many different types of aircrafts which will be costlier in terms of having more aircraft and engine parts, flight simulators and different qualifications for th engineers to work on them besides the tech and cabin crew qualifications that need to staff the aircrafts and less mobile crews besides higher training costs.
Currently SQ operates :

744s
777s
A340s
A380s

and in near future it will have all at one time :

A380s
A333s
A350s
A345s
B777s
B787s


in fact in the past SQ sticks to 2 or 3 types only to save on fleet types and equipment spares like the 744s and A310s.
Not sure why SQ split its order of the smaller medium types into 20 A350s and 20 787s - as it would be better efficiency n economics to have just either one of these 2 types.

[zvezda]

believed now that SQ is having and going to have too many different types of aircrafts which will be costlier in terms of having more aircraft and engine parts, flight simulators and different qualifications for th engineers to work on them besides the tech and cabin crew qualifications that need to staff the aircrafts and less mobile crews besides higher training costs.
Currently SQ operates :

744s
777s
A340s
A380s

and in near future it will have all at one time :

A380s
A333s
A350s
A345s
B777s
B787s


in fact in the past SQ sticks to 2 or 3 types only to save on fleet types and equipment spares like the 744s and A310s.
Not sure why SQ split its order of the smaller medium types into 20 A350s and 20 787s - as it would be better efficiency n economics to have just either one of these 2 types.

The A340-500s will be replaced by either 787s or A350s. After evaluating both the 787 and the A350 in service, I expect SQ will sell one and consolidate on the other, which will form all of SQ's fleet together with the WhaleJets, as the 777s and A330s leave the fleet. So, ten or so years from now, the SQ fleet will probably have just two types again.

[kelvgoh]

the A330, 340, 380 all belong to the Airbus Flight Operational Commonality family which means that all flight decks and operational procedures on the types above are similar. This provides for easy cross training across all the types. I expect the A350 to be part of the "family" too.

With the exception of the 77W (which has exclusive supply by GE) and 744s (fitted with Pratt & Whitneys a long time ago), SQ have always chosen RR Trents to power their active fleet. They've even invested in a joint venture with RR in Singapore. I will be very surprised if they do not choose Trents for the A350 and 787 fleets.

Operationally, I don't think SQ's fleet will be that patchwork as a result.

but in soft business terms, SQ still has to retain a good relationship with both boeing and airbus. business relationships are essential in wrangling out good prices for future orders - which might offset a significant amount of the extra you have to set aside for spares.

[soak01]

Does anyone know if the A330's will be 3 class (F, J & Y) or 2 class (J and Y) configuration or a combination of both as they will start to replace existing aircraft.

[flyguy]

do doubt the A333s will be configured in 3 classes as more likely it will be just 2 classes.

[zvezda]

Long Term Fleet Prospects

WhaleJet: 19 with deliveries 2007 through 2011. Additional orders possible but unlikely. Likely to be retired around 2020. Likely to be replaced by either new WhaleJets (if still in production) or whatever Boeing develop to replace the 777-300ER and 747-8I.

747-8I: Very unlikely to ever be part of the SQ fleet.

747-400: SQ operated 42 in the past, but the last will be retired in a matter of months. Replaced by a mix of WhaleJets, 777-300ERs, 777-300s, and 777-200ERs. No longer in production.

777-300ER: 19 in service. 13 options with a fair chance of being exercised. To be retired around 2020. Unlikely to still be in production then. Likely replacement will be the A350-1000 or whatever Boeing develop to replace the 777-300ER and 747-8I.

777-300: 12 in service with 1 to be retired soon. The other 11 will be refitted with new interiors. The 11 will probably be retired between 2012 and 2017. The replacement is likely to be the 787-9, but could be the A350.

777-200ER (9V-SV*): 15 in service. Likely to be retired between 2014 and 2016. These will be replaced by A350-900s, 20 of which are on order.

777-200ER (derated): 29 of 30 still in service. Retirements started in 2009 and will continue through about 2016. These are being replaced by a mix of A330-300s and 787-9s.

A340-500: 5 in service. These have the highest CASM and highest RASM of all SQ aircraft. These are likely to be replaced by a future long-range version of the A350, but might be replaced by a future long-range version of the 787. Timing depends on the availability of a suitable replacement.

A330-300: 19 to be leased for five and six year terms. 7 already in operation with the remaining 12 to enter service over the next year. These are replacing SQ's oldest 777s. Unless the leases are extended, they will leave the fleet from 2014 through 2016. They will be replaced by 787-9s unless the A350 proves to have lower operating costs for the relevant (under 8 hours) missions.

787-9: 20 ordered for delivery starting 2011. Deliveries should start 2013 due to production issues with the 787-8. If the operating costs for short-to-medium haul flights prove lower than that of the A350, then SQ will probably exercise 20 options. Retirements are likely to start about 2025. However, if the A350 proves to have lower operating costs on the relevant missions, then SQ are likely to not keep these long.

A350-900: 20 ordered for delivery starting 2013. If the A350 can match the 787's operating cost on short-to-medium haul missions, then it will become the backbone of SQ's fleet, much as the 777 is today. It's possible that SQ might someday operate as many as 100 A350s.

SQ will need to start taking delivery of aircraft not yet ordered by about 2015. SQ would like to see both the 787 and A350 in service before choosing which model to order next. However, the timing is such that SQ will probably need to either decide based on actual performance of the 787 and predictions of the A350 or delay the decision and exercise some 777-300ER options. The latter becomes much more likely if Boeing can extend the 777-300ER's range to permit nonstop SFO/LAX-SIN flights with an economically viable payload.

[SQJunkie]

Thanks zvezda !

[milehighj]

Good info, thanks.

[HUGE AL]

Awesome summary!

Hope it puts all the other threads to rest.

[Russ]

I see the A380s staying longer than 2020, perhaps 2023-2028 before they leave the fleet and are replaced by newer A380s.

[9V-JKL]

Excellent

I notice you seem to like the A350 a lot (nothing wrong, just an observation)

[zvezda]

I see the A380s staying longer than 2020, perhaps 2023-2028 before they leave the fleet and are replaced by newer A380s.

SQ have never kept any passenger in aircraft in service past 15 years. The norm is 12 years and anything much beyond 12 has been only due to delays with the replacement aircraft. Why would you expect the WhaleJets to be kept longer than normal? I can think of three reasons why SQ might replace their WhaleJets sooner than normal:
- the first batch are a few tonnes heavier (and therefore less efficient to operate) than those now entering production,
- it's the last new airliner built with 20th century technology, and
- the advantage of CFRP over aluminium increases with the size of an aircraft.

Until there is evidence to the contrary, I'll continue to assume that SQ will keep their WhaleJets the usual 12 years or so.

Also, why do you write off Boeing without knowing what they'll be offering at the time?

[SQtraveller]

Also, why do you write off Boeing without knowing what they'll be offering at the time?

post deleted

[zvezda]

I notice you seem to like the A350 a lot (nothing wrong, just an observation)

Actually, I think I like the 787 slightly more, but I think the A350 is a better fit for SQ. It will be very interesting to see how they compete in terms of operating costs.

While Boeing are talking about how 787 will be the dominant type of plane along with their revamped 747; I'd be surprised if they don't have on their design boards a brand new large passenger jet. I can't believe they will go on creating 747 variants - the core design is something like 45 years old!!

There will definitely not be any more new derivatives of the JumboJet after the 747-8. Boeing have multiple teams of engineers doing design studies all the time. Most of those design studies are for a 737/757 replacement and for a 777-300ER/747-8 replacement. At both Airbus and Boeing, some design studies are conservative and some are more fanciful.

My favorite concept for a 777-300ER/747-8 replacement has a cabin width similar to the 777 on the maindeck and a bit wider than the A320 on the upper deck. It's frontal cross section is about 75% than of the WhaleJet, while carrying 80% as many seats per row. Cargo to passenger ratio is better too. Boeing's challenge is get the CASM below that of the WhaleJet despite the aerodynamic advantage provided by a larger size. In their favor, Boeing would have CFRP construction, higher aspect ratio wings, progress in modeling fluid dynamics, two rather than four engines, and newer engine technology. The 777-300ER/747-8 replace should easily beat the WhaleJet in structural efficiency and propulsion efficiency, but aerodynamic efficiency will be the big challenge. The 747-8I will beat the WhaleJet in structural and propulsion efficiency, but the WhaleJet has such a huge advantage in aerodynamic efficiency, despite relofting the JumboJet's wings, that the WhaleJet wins in overall efficiency.

[s7r0ng3r]

737/757 replacement

There's the Y1.

777-300ER/747-8 replacement.

Say hello to the Y3!

My favorite concept for a 777-300ER/747-8 replacement has a cabin width similar to the 777 on the maindeck and a bit wider than the A320 on the upper deck.

You mean like the Ecoliner Concept? I'm thinking along your lines, except I'd prefer the upper deck to be like the 767.

What do you have to say about SQ's cargo fleet?