Coronavirus : Flight cancellations and contingencies

[tth_ben]

Do take note that Singapore had passed the Covid19 Temporary Measures Act. I think airlines are within the scope of this law and among all, you wouldn’t be able to bring any material legal action to SQ within 6 months from late March. And this act can be extended by another 6 months when appropriate. So if you’re waiting for a refund then you have to be patient...

No, airlines are not. But with the motherhood statements the media has been making about that statute, many in the public would have reasonably been given the impression that it covers many more contracts than it actually does.

[tth_ben]

With their survival at stake, I don't think they will mind losing you as a loyal PPS member just so that other more loyal QPPS/TPPS have a status to go back to after this crisis.

If there isn't even a SIA, a status means nothing.

Even if that is the case, I guess anybody who is sensible can see why they are doing what they are doing. They are not denying a refund to you are they?



Actually why do you have to defend your decision? If you would like to file, you can go ahead to file regardless of what people here say isn't it? I doubt it will change your mind. Don't get so worked up. Chill.

Not sure why the sudden accusation of me "having to defend my decision". These are my views, just as you have your own views too.

Thanks for the time in parsing through and quoting each of my posts. But please don't bring your HWZ habits here - SQTalk is not the place for this. Please, don't get so worked up too. Stress can cause further weight gain.

[tth_ben]

It's not that, but you are not necessarily going to achieve a better result by dragging SQ to the SCT. At best, maybe a two or three weeks faster.

You wouldn't go straight for a hearing. You would have to book a consultation. And with the CB currently in place, I'm not sure if the consultation would take place soon. If it all fails, it goes to hearing. And SQ doesn't have to pay you the money immediately. They are given a certain amount of time from the date of the order to pay.

https://www.statecourts.gov.sg/cws/S...formation.aspx

These are very valid points. My concern stems from the fact that their own quoted refund timelines have repeatedly been delayed (3rd change in timeline so far - originally 14 days, now effectively 3 months and counting). We'll see how it goes...

[tth_ben]

And this is retroactive to "contracts" from 1 Feb 2020.

More accurately, the legislation is designed to cover obligations that are due to be performed on or after 1 Feb 2020. The agreement (of which only a limited number of types of agreements are covered) itself can actually have been entered to any time before that, even in 2000 (hypothetically speaking).

[reddevil0728]

Not sure why the sudden accusation of me "having to defend my decision". These are my views, just as you have your own views too.

Thanks for the time in parsing through and quoting each of my posts. But please don't bring your HWZ habits here - SQTalk is not the place for this. Please, don't get so worked up too. Stress can cause further weight gain.

Not sure why you call that an accusation, I’m just suggesting “you do you”. It’s not necessary for you to have to express your views to others. So in a way I’m actually supporting your views? Rather than being against your views?

I think the 2nd part of your post is totally uncalled for, bordering on fat shaming.

[yuuka_miya]

Unfortunately, hanging onto refunds is part of the lifeline for almost all airlines now and timing of such disbursement is a matter of life and death. Passengers are unsecured creditors, and if everyone pulls the trigger and go to the courts, they’ll get nothing too. It’s frustrating but when the shit hits the fan, everyone gets it. Just wait...

Probably there are those folks that think since SIA is government-backed, any refunds they can wring out through the courts should be supported by the government... right? There may be a political angle towards giving people their money back so they can spend it on the local economy, but this isn't a certain East Asian country.

I'm considering myself fortunate that at least SIA has been willing to offer a refund, even if it takes months for them to pool the money to actually do so. That's not necessarily goodwill you can get from other airlines.

[wlgspotter]

...I'm considering myself fortunate that at least SIA has been willing to offer a refund, even if it takes months for them to pool the money to actually do so. That's not necessarily goodwill you can get from other airlines.

Totally agree. As I indicated in an earlier post, Air NZ isn't even offering a refund. I mean you could go ahead and ask for a refund, however, any refunds that they will provide will be subjected to the cancellation and/or admin fees as stated in the ticket conditions. The best that NZ (and some other airlines perhaps) are willing to do is a credit, to be used by a certain date.

[ponders]

These are very valid points. My concern stems from the fact that their own quoted refund timelines have repeatedly been delayed (3rd change in timeline so far - originally 14 days, now effectively 3 months and counting). We'll see how it goes...

Do find out from SCT their schedules. As far as I know SCT is not conducting any hearings during this CB period, I have a scheduled mediation (not SQ related) early April it has thus far yet to happen, the rescheduled date came and went and latest info is that they will only reschedule after CB lifted.

[alian]

While I’m very pro consumer rights and have a lot of frustration due to cancellations. We also need to be mindful the airline did not choose to intentionally cancel the flights. If they did not cancel the flights would you dare fly either?

This is one crappy situation, you can be angry, be frustrated, go let out steam and then cool off because it’s a really though time for all No one asked for COVID but we must bear with it together. Going to court won’t make the issue better either. While I hate the feeling that they take 3 months to refund while they took my payment in 3 seconds. That’s the reality and the best you’ll get at this stage.

On a separate note does anyone think SQ rebooking offer of 75/200/500 for Y / J / F class incentive make any sense? I really wanted to support SQ and instead of seeking a refund go for credit but 200 and 500 really does not appeal me at all. A J ticket to BKK vs JFK has the same incentive ??? Seriously I think SQ missed the trees for the woods here. Scoot on the other hand offers a 20% across the board and that’s something I look forward to. Hope SQ can rethink their rebooking options.

[9V-SML]

While I’m very pro consumer rights and have a lot of frustration due to cancellations. We also need to be mindful the airline did not choose to intentionally cancel the flights. If they did not cancel the flights would you dare fly either?

This is one crappy situation, you can be angry, be frustrated, go let out steam and then cool off because it’s a really though time for all No one asked for COVID but we must bear with it together. Going to court won’t make the issue better either. While I hate the feeling that they take 3 months to refund while they took my payment in 3 seconds. That’s the reality and the best you’ll get at this stage.

On a separate note does anyone think SQ rebooking offer of 75/200/500 for Y / J / F class incentive make any sense? I really wanted to support SQ and instead of seeking a refund go for credit but 200 and 500 really does not appeal me at all. A J ticket to BKK vs JFK has the same incentive ??? Seriously I think SQ missed the trees for the woods here. Scoot on the other hand offers a 20% across the board and that’s something I look forward to. Hope SQ can rethink their rebooking options.

My thoughts on the bonus credits exactly. But upon a deeper rethink, perhaps SQ does not see a rebound in the long haul market within 1 year or so. So for those flying long haul the bonus is unlikely to incentivise you to opt for it if there are no potential flights to re-book on - that may be the thinking behind allowing partial utilisation of the flight credits. Maybe go on 2 medium haul or 2 short hauls (depending on how many flight credits you were originally awarded). Like you highlighted, the bonus would feature a bigger percentage of the flight credits originally awarded for folks who booked shorter flights. This may be the market that SQ wants to target to restart as border restrictions are gradually lifted.

Personally, I did not take them up on the bonus credits on my revenue PEY booking to the US for April (flights were cancelled by SQ). Gonna be waiting for them to be in touch with me about the refund that I lodged.

[9V-SPL]

Singapore Airlines Seeks Fleet Flexibility, In Talks For Deferrals And Sale And Lease

Interesting article from Forbes:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/willhor.../#5807aa9f2cde

[flyguy]

Many other airlines too have seek deferment and some even cancellations of aircraft orders. Although SQ average age for the newer planes are low, but for the 77W the few oldest are over 13 years old and the earlier A380s are between 10 to 12 years old and the ver 1 and ver 2 of the A380s carries less than 400 pax which makes the A380s operate at even higher costs. Recovery for SQ will be a long and financially challenging one, and to add financial burden is that SQ had hedged its fuel requirements for this year at a previous high of US$72, as fuel prices gave come down to less than half of that in the last couple of months.

[WBT]

While I’m very pro consumer rights and have a lot of frustration due to cancellations. We also need to be mindful the airline did not choose to intentionally cancel the flights. If they did not cancel the flights would you dare fly either?

This is one crappy situation, you can be angry, be frustrated, go let out steam and then cool off because it’s a really though time for all No one asked for COVID but we must bear with it together. Going to court won’t make the issue better either. While I hate the feeling that they take 3 months to refund while they took my payment in 3 seconds. That’s the reality and the best you’ll get at this stage.

I do concur with this. If the worst thing that happens to me as a result of the pandemic is that my refunds from SQ take a bit longer, I'll sign up right here and now.

For a first-order approximation, here's a very quick & dirty back-of-the-envelope calculation on SQ's cash position: based on the FY 2019 numbers, SQ generated about $13.7 bn in revenue from passenger operations (that's $15.7 bn from airline ops for all SIA airlines, (for SQ alone it's $13.1 bn), less about $2 bn from cargo, based on FY 2017 numbers, which is the last year for which I can see a separate cargo line item).

So let's say SIA historically generated $13.7/12 = $1.1 bn in revenue per month.

Operating income as stated for FY19 was $1.2 bn (revenue less costs, but before taxes and other stuff). So that's about $0.1 bn a month.

Let's assume passenger revenue goes to zero now and that costs remain the same (I know, both are not quite true, but as I said, this is just an estimate). That would result in SIA bleeding about $1 bn in cash per month. That's before you factor in negative cash flow from refunds. So if they refund all monthly revenue they would normally get (~$1.1 bn) on top of that, they'd be bleeding ~$2.1 bn a month. This is a worst-case scenario.

As of Dec 2019 SIA had $1.7 bn in cash and short-term investments. So under the worst-case scenario, they'd run out of cash within a month. Without any refunds and "only" zero pax revenue, they can stretch it to almost two months before they run out.

Deferring refunds could well be a matter of simple survival. I'm OK with that.

(I know, the above analysis contains many simplifying assumptions about revenue and costs, assumes no further adjustments to either through management action, does not conform with accounting realities as to how revenue/refunds/etc are booked/recognized, cabin mix, early sales vs more lucrative last minutes sales, etc. But even if it's off by a factor of two, SIA would still run out of cash within a few months, so that rights issue supported by Temasek is essential.)

[SQ28]

(4 May 2020) Preparations underway for business travel to resume: Minister

https://www.tnp.sg/news/singapore/pr...esume-minister

[Metropolitan Airlines]

(4 May 2020) Preparations underway for business travel to resume: Minister

https://www.tnp.sg/news/singapore/pr...esume-minister

Interesting it already in discussions with Japan even Japan has not been on the other side of the curve and they are still struggling with Coronavirus especially in Tokyo.

On the other hand, I wonder why such discussions has not been in place with Hong Kong and Taiwan, since I believe these countries are low on Coronavirus cases and therefore it should be quite feasible for Singapore to reopen the border with them once the outbreak with Foreign Worker's Dormitories is resolved.