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Old 9th January 2017, 09:00 PM   #31
Dobbo
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It would be great if SQ could find ways to be more competetive on the kangaroo route. It is a massive market which the ME carriers have rather monopolised over the past 5-10 years, in part due to the geographical advantage.

It sounds like they might be in a tricky spot at the moment so with some work it might be that SQ can put forward an offering that would be tough for the MEB3 to match. Obviously CX and other chinese carriers may enter this market but the opportunity just might be there.
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Old 10th January 2017, 05:08 AM   #32
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I suspect these new flights that happen at odd times with older planes will be the only way the lowest fares will be achievable. The moment somebody clicks on SQ228 the price will jump a few hundred. My guess at their strategy is that if they can get Australians to Singapore, they will then fill a seat on a Euro flight that would otherwise remain empty. The ME3 is now less of a concern to SQ than the new Chinese airlines.
While the mainland Chinese airlines are already major players on the Australia-China O&D market, I think it will take a while before they become big on the larger Kangaroo Route, although they definitely seem to be on their way. SQ and the ME3 still look like the preferred airlines for this route.
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Old 10th January 2017, 05:56 AM   #33
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Originally Posted by Dobbo View Post
It would be great if SQ could find ways to be more competetive on the kangaroo route. It is a massive market which the ME carriers have rather monopolised over the past 5-10 years, in part due to the geographical advantage.

It sounds like they might be in a tricky spot at the moment so with some work it might be that SQ can put forward an offering that would be tough for the MEB3 to match. Obviously CX and other chinese carriers may enter this market but the opportunity just might be there.
I'm no expert on such things but I think they are making some good moves in the right direction IMHO. SQ still maintains an excellent brand reputation in Australia.

If people prefer to fly via Asia, CX is also still popular, but MH has all but disappeared and I haven't heard anyone say they're flying with TG for longer than I can remember. The new Chinese operators offer very low prices, but nobody wants to fly with them- they are only settling for the lowest possible price.

When the ME3 first ramped up their operations, SQ did nothing in return and with only 3 daily flights to/from MEL, they booked out months in advance and this simply forced people to fly with the ME3 instead. It shouldn't be assumed that these passengers wouldn't come back to SQ if offered a competitively priced flight. QF is also no longer the player they once were- everyone now knows that flying with QF means ending up on a connecting EK flight and changing in Dubai- two things that QF's traditional market don't appreciate.
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Old 11th January 2017, 05:53 PM   #34
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I'm no expert on such things but I think they are making some good moves in the right direction IMHO. SQ still maintains an excellent brand reputation in Australia.

If people prefer to fly via Asia, CX is also still popular, but MH has all but disappeared and I haven't heard anyone say they're flying with TG for longer than I can remember. The new Chinese operators offer very low prices, but nobody wants to fly with them- they are only settling for the lowest possible price.

When the ME3 first ramped up their operations, SQ did nothing in return and with only 3 daily flights to/from MEL, they booked out months in advance and this simply forced people to fly with the ME3 instead. It shouldn't be assumed that these passengers wouldn't come back to SQ if offered a competitively priced flight. QF is also no longer the player they once were- everyone now knows that flying with QF means ending up on a connecting EK flight and changing in Dubai- two things that QF's traditional market don't appreciate.
SQ have an excellent reputation in the UK. The problem they have (refering to MAN as it is the market I know most about - but I suspect it is repeated over most of Europe) is that the MEB3 are perceived (rightly or wrongly) as equal or superior - yet offer better departure times and a raft of connecting options (including to Africa and the Indian subcontinent which don't really work for SQ from the UK or Europe because of the geography).

On this basis, EK, EY and QR churn through approximately 135,000 passengers a month from MAN, whereas SQ struggles with anything around 7-10,000 per month. Obviously we don't know yields, but bizarrely SIN always crops up as one of EK and EY's most popular destinations ex MAN.

SQ needs a slightly higher critical mass to offer competing flight times and they may start to claw back some of this market. SQ should be better placed to offer connections to Australasia and Asia than the MEB3, which market may be up for grabs if the MEN3 run into a period of stagnation.
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Old 12th January 2017, 01:28 AM   #35
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dobbo View Post
It would be great if SQ could find ways to be more competetive on the kangaroo route. It is a massive market which the ME carriers have rather monopolised over the past 5-10 years, in part due to the geographical advantage.
Bearing in mind they are the biggest foreign carrier to/from Australia (or were uo until recently) and with the volume of pax they have been carrying on the Kangaroo route for the last 30 years then they must have been competitive enough. I don't think the ME3's geographical location makes much difference for Europe - Australia traffic as either way you have got a long flight and a medium one, be it outbound or inbound.

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Obviously CX and other chinese carriers may enter this market but the opportunity just might be there.
CX have been in the kangaroo market for decades, it's only the mainland carriers that are new on the scene. They do seem to be hurting CX in a number of markets at the moment.
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Old 12th January 2017, 01:37 AM   #36
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On this basis, EK, EY and QR churn through approximately 135,000 passengers a month from MAN, whereas SQ struggles with anything around 7-10,000 per month. Obviously we don't know yields, but bizarrely SIN always crops up as one of EK and EY's most popular destinations ex MAN.
There is little point comparing SQ against the ME4 ex MAN (or LHR for that matter) as they ship an awful lot of pax from the UK to the Middle East, India, Pakistan etc as well as places like South Africa, Japan and Korea, for which SQ are never going to compete or chase. That is where their geography truly comes in to play.

If SQ can get their numbers up to anything like they were before the 2008 crash (a tall order with the extra competition now) then they will be happy as the nonstop route did very well in those days when 80% of ex-MAN pax were going to Aus/NZ.
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Old 12th January 2017, 02:06 AM   #37
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I don't think the ME3's geographical location makes much difference for Europe - Australia traffic as either way you have got a long flight and a medium one, be it outbound or inbound.
Yes, very much agree. All it means in practicality is swapping one's flight length sequence.

I actually think SQ is much better placed to capture the Australian market overall, for the same reason ME airlines can capture the UK market. SQ can offer an extensive range of Euro destinations on top of all their connections within Asia, which explains why they continue to fill 4 or 5 daily flights out of BNE, PER, MEL and SYD (the last of which is now heading toward 6) and why they are the only international airline to make a go of CBR.

I find QR's announcement regarding CBR to be bizarre and makes about as much sense as SQ announcing direct flights to LUX. Seemed to take CBR airport management equally by surprise. Maybe QR should consider a second daily flight to MEL first...
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Old 12th January 2017, 03:21 AM   #38
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MAN Flyer View Post
There is little point comparing SQ against the ME4 ex MAN (or LHR for that matter) as they ship an awful lot of pax from the UK to the Middle East, India, Pakistan etc as well as places like South Africa, Japan and Korea, for which SQ are never going to compete or chase. That is where their geography truly comes in to play.

If SQ can get their numbers up to anything like they were before the 2008 crash (a tall order with the extra competition now) then they will be happy as the nonstop route did very well in those days when 80% of ex-MAN pax were going to Aus/NZ.
The ME3 have also become massive players in the US market, especially for flights connecting to the subcontinent. This has caused UA, DL, AA, and the like to accuse the ME3 of getting huge subsidies and other help they see as unfair.

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Yes, very much agree. All it means in practicality is swapping one's flight length sequence.

I actually think SQ is much better placed to capture the Australian market overall, for the same reason ME airlines can capture the UK market. SQ can offer an extensive range of Euro destinations on top of all their connections within Asia, which explains why they continue to fill 4 or 5 daily flights out of BNE, PER, MEL and SYD (the last of which is now heading toward 6) and why they are the only international airline to make a go of CBR.

I find QR's announcement regarding CBR to be bizarre and makes about as much sense as SQ announcing direct flights to LUX. Seemed to take CBR airport management equally by surprise. Maybe QR should consider a second daily flight to MEL first...
QR's announcement about CBR also takes me by surprise. However, not being familiar with QR management, all I can speculate is that the announcement was something that only Al-Baker (QR's CEO) can explain. The announcement may have very well been a jab at SQ, as it was made just over 2 months after SQ launched SIN-CBR-WLG.

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Old 12th January 2017, 05:14 AM   #39
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However, not being familiar with QR management, all I can speculate is that the announcement was something that only Al-Baker (QR's CEO) can explain.
Yes, he's an interesting character... I prefer my airline CEOs to be a little more stable and measured. Makes me feel safer flying their planes!
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Old 12th January 2017, 06:57 AM   #40
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Re the Kangaroo market: I agree at the macro level that it makes little difference whether your Hub is located in the Middle East of Far East. However, I think this falls down when analysed at the micro level.

I'll articulate my thoughts on this when I have more time.
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Old 13th January 2017, 05:16 AM   #41
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I think at the micro level it is better for outbound passengers smaller markets (e.g. MAN/CHC) to be located closer to the hub of a major kangaroo carrier for the following reasons:

1 - shorter sector times make it a smaller allocation of resources per rotation for the airline (smaller risk and higher 24 hour profitability).
2 - shorter sector increases onward connecting options.
3 - makes it more likely to have a daily (or more than daily) service to the hub
4 - increased choice (departure time) makes it more attractive to outbound passengers.

These relative advantages/disadvantages balance out at the macro level because smaller markets from thin routes feed into the trunk routes on the onward connection. For example, LHR/SYD would be trunk routes with multiple frequencies at either end whereas MAN/CHC would be the thin routes.

The above makes it possible for the smaller markets with shorter sectors to the hub to have multiple frequencies and therefore experience a virtuous circle and connect to a larger market. It makes little difference for the larger markets because they have the critical mass to sustain multiple daily frequencies at wither end.

This is why MAN has multiple daily frequencies to the MEB hubs, yet are 5x weekly to SIN and HKG. The first stage is to get to daily and, if the route can get close to the loads from the early noughties, perhaps those extra late rotations could start to claw back some market share.
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Old 14th January 2017, 02:57 AM   #42
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CX has just undercut SQ.

MEL-AMS return for $1094.

We might be about to see a Kangaroo Route price war.
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Old 15th January 2017, 12:11 AM   #43
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How about the price war on North America routes? Particularly SFO. I believe CX and SQ are both fighting pretty hard on this one
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