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  • SQ Post Covid-19

    How do you all think SQ post Covid-19 will look like? Let's discuss.

    I think the following might happen:
    Fleet
    773s will be retired soon (772s are unlikely to come back from ASP)
    A333s will also be gone once the leases are up
    Version1 A380s will not be re-configured and will be gone, A380 fleet reduced to 10-12 planes
    737 Maxes will just wait out, no hurry to bring them in
    Undelivered A359/B78J/B779 will be deferred. 779 possibly pushed out to 2023/24?
    No new aircraft orders till 2025cy
    Reconfigure a couple of 77Ws to freighters

    Routes
    No new routes added till 2022
    FRA/JFK downgauged to 77W, perhaps there will be a review with LH on their JV on the FRA route
    Some of the daily multi-frequencies like HKG/CGK/ICN/TYO will reduce by 30%
    More JVs even outside *A
    Aircraft allocation will change towards what cargo can carry rather than pax capacity
    More charters

    Look forward to hear what the rest of you think

  • #2
    In terms of the routes, I think some questions would probably be asked about the possibility of resumption of some of the “lesser” routes, for e.g. whether SQ would resume routes like SIN-MEL-WLG vv?
    Last edited by wlgspotter; 5 May 2020, 04:06 PM.

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    • #3
      Maybe this could be a time for SQ to have a look at their less illustrious freighter fleet. Operating a small fleet of ageing B747s, operating costs must be high considering their age and the need to stock up on spares and crew for such a small subfleet.

      SQ could consider sending their old B77Ws for freighter conversions to replace the B747Fs. The operating costs alone would be enough to justify such an investment.

      Coupled with cost savings from parts and crew commonality with the pax fleet, this would be a no brainer considering the B744Fs are due for retirement anytime soon.

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      • #4
        The economics of the entire 777X project is up in the air, its days may be numbered. I wouldn't count on SQ taking them at all.

        Originally posted by boing View Post
        Maybe this could be a time for SQ to have a look at their less illustrious freighter fleet. Operating a small fleet of ageing B747s, operating costs must be high considering their age and the need to stock up on spares and crew for such a small subfleet.

        SQ could consider sending their old B77Ws for freighter conversions to replace the B747Fs. The operating costs alone would be enough to justify such an investment.

        Coupled with cost savings from parts and crew commonality with the pax fleet, this would be a no brainer considering the B744Fs are due for retirement anytime soon.
        The 747s are special because of the nose loading door, I believe.

        If Boeing are still taking 748F orders, it could be a good opportunity to convert some passenger 787 orders and/or get out of the MAX.
        Last edited by yuuka_miya; 5 May 2020, 03:15 PM.
        an infrastructure geek

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        • #5
          Possibly the re-launch of BRU will be postponed?
          Singapore Airlines - A great way to fly...

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          • #6
            Originally posted by yuuka_miya View Post
            The 747s are special because of the nose loading door, I believe.

            If Boeing are still taking 748F orders, it could be a good opportunity to convert some passenger 787 orders and/or get out of the MAX.
            Very rarely is the nose loading door used as it's only used when a lengthy piece of cargo needs to be loaded. Arline based freighters are increasingly utilising B777F or A330F as they can achieve economies of scale with their pax variation. It's only standalone freighters, such as Cargolux and Atlas air that are still purchasing B747Fs

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            • #7
              Originally posted by boing View Post
              Very rarely is the nose loading door used as it's only used when a lengthy piece of cargo needs to be loaded. Arline based freighters are increasingly utilising B777F or A330F as they can achieve economies of scale with their pax variation. It's only standalone freighters, such as Cargolux and Atlas air that are still purchasing B747Fs
              I'd rather think there's a reason why SQ hasn't retired their 744Fs - perhaps they might want to retain the flexibility to serve the odd-size market if necessary.

              Converting any 777s would probably see them sold to someone else, to allow the 77W to fully leave SQ service when its time comes.
              an infrastructure geek

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              • #8
                It's plausible to suspect that many secondary routes, especially those with layovers (eg. SIN-MAN-IAD, SIN-ARN-DME) might be suspended for a long time, or ultimately terminated. Direct flights will be more popular in efforts to minimise contact (to reduce infections) and will help control the flow of people between countries.

                In terms of the fleet, some A359ULRs might get reconfigured to the standard A359 to free up cargo space and increase seating. I also don't see all A380s getting refitted - the fact that SQ sent the newest ones to the desert for storage indicates that there is not going to be any demand for them anytime soon. It also doesn't help that the A380 has less cargo space than the rest of the fleet and significantly higher operating costs. To offset this, perhaps some of the newer 77Ws might receive a higher density layout to help cope with demand on popular flights once air travel resumes, whenever that will be. The 777X probably won't be coming anytime soon - it wouldn't be surprising to see some of the orders being swapped to 777Fs or 787s.

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                • #9
                  Originally posted by boing View Post
                  Maybe this could be a time for SQ to have a look at their less illustrious freighter fleet. Operating a small fleet of ageing B747s, operating costs must be high considering their age and the need to stock up on spares and crew for such a small subfleet.

                  SQ could consider sending their old B77Ws for freighter conversions to replace the B747Fs. The operating costs alone would be enough to justify such an investment.

                  Coupled with cost savings from parts and crew commonality with the pax fleet, this would be a no brainer considering the B744Fs are due for retirement anytime soon.
                  Problem is during normal time, airfreight business is not really profitable.
                  You can look at SQ load factor for cargoes in the past. So whether they will replace 747F is one issue. Will they not replaced instead ? And just use Normal passenger aircraft ?

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                  • #10
                    Originally posted by 9V-SPL View Post
                    Possibly the re-launch of BRU will be postponed?
                    Yes, that's one of the first things I have thought of. I'm concerned a few of the thinner European destinations could be in danger, such as DUS. LH group airlines will be desperate for codeshare traffic, so could see a bit of rationalisation of direct routes for a while. Also in Europe, possibly the loss of BCN direct or some days per week, rework of MXP/BCN etc. I also see CDG as being another flight that will probably go 77W for the time being at least.

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                    • #11
                      Originally posted by wlgspotter View Post
                      In terms of the routes, I think some questions would probably be asked about the possibility of resumption of some of the “lesser” routes, for e.g. whether SQ would resume routes like SIN-MEL-WLG vv?
                      Yeah, I would agree with you there. The SIN-MEL-SIN legs fly at similar times to two other flights and are largely used as a capacity top-up for MEL that definitely won't be required any time soon. QF and NZ will be vying to get pax on their flights between MEL and WLG with attractive offers at least initially, so can't see it looking like a priority for SQ to resume.

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                      • #12
                        On aircrafts, SQ will accelerate the retirement of its 772s and 773s (non ER) and returned all its remaining 6 A330s within the remaining year. For the A380s, would expect SQ to use its older A380s for a year or so before retiring them as even before this crisis, few airlines have been retiring their even newer A380s and some completely removing the fleet. For SQ do expect SQ to retire 4 to 5 of its older A380s due to its higher costs of operating the 4 engine plane and the slower recovery of passengers air travel. However the remaining ver 2 A380s will be a trying one as it only carries a low 379 pax, and the reconfiguration of these A380s into ver 3 is now questionable.
                        On top of that SQ had hedged its aviation fuel at a high USD72 in Feb/Mar for most of this year, as fuel price have dropped to less than half since april till now.

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                        • #13
                          Originally posted by SQ228 View Post
                          Yeah, I would agree with you there. The SIN-MEL-SIN legs fly at similar times to two other flights and are largely used as a capacity top-up for MEL that definitely won't be required any time soon. QF and NZ will be vying to get pax on their flights between MEL and WLG with attractive offers at least initially, so can't see it looking like a priority for SQ to resume.
                          Yeah agree. I guess the only thing we we don't know (or at least I don't know about) is the apparently so-called "deal" that Wellington City Council have with SQ to bring in to the Capital of New Zealand... What's in the deal, whether would the deal carry on post Covid-19 etc, and what, if there is, any impact to decisions on the resumption on SQ's WLG flights...

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                          • #14
                            i think global demand will return to normal sooner than people believe.

                            the fact is that this virus will never be contained until a vaccine is found. although the virus carries the heightened risk of pneumonia and resulting death, most people who get it recover normally with mild symptoms.

                            at some point...and i believe this will come sooner than expected....the economic damage and pain will outweigh the fear of contracting the virus and cost to human life (sadly) and countries will begin opening up - and once they open up, things will return to normal very fast.

                            in the meantime...perhaps for the rest of 2020, likely reduced flight frequencies and slightly lower loads which will mean A380s see less deployment.

                            one thing not sure though - will global business air travel be reduced in the long term - given how businesses are adapting to virtual meetings, etc. - that will have an effect on the premium market. it's a tough read at this point frankly.

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                            • #15
                              I do believe that the gradual reinstatement of flights will depend mainly on the time it will take to forge bilateral agreements between countries which will regulate the conditions for entry/exit of passengers at in/outbound destinations.

                              To get anywhere near 70% of the prior-Covid capacity within the next 6 to 12 month might be rather positive thinking if you follow the statements of certain governments.
                              IMHO Intra-Asia will be the first to kick-off with Korea and China (incl. HKG) which might be some of the first destination to open with limitations to business related travelling.

                              The prospect of flying with a crew in full-protective gear will not help to push confidence.

                              Second tier destinations especially the ones in Europe may have to wait probably a longer time for the return of SQ.

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